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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 22, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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>> yeah, and it leaves a lot of people wondering, what do you do but at least on a stock by stock basis, looking at the fundamentals, you can see where the market overall is going, just -- that's what we do here >> we're going to talk about chips, because tomorrow we have the commerce secretary joining us here on "overtime," too that's exclusive going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of times square this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight nvidia lifting broader markets nasdaq soars nearly 3% biggest game in over a year. just a tenth of a percent from a record close s&p and dow, new records dow tops 39k for the first time. were nvidia's results for the green light for the rally to roll on? the nikkikkei at an all-tim for the first time in 34 years phil collins ruled the airwaves.
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a lot has changed since then, but one top investor says these stocks are actually cheaper now. later on, restaurant stocks rally. a gold miner loses its shine, and moderna mets up, best day in a year on the desk tonight, bonawyn eison, dan nathan, and guy a adami. >> c.q., you drew the short straw yet again, but we're thrilled to you have here. >> we're going to start with the massive post earnings rally. nvidia shares surging more than 16% to a new record close. stock adds more than $720 billion in market cap, just today. that's bigger than the size of one whole b of a and the single biggest gain for any single company. it's added a trillion to its value since just last june is the gains today, ripple effects across tech, the semis,
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supermicro arm, all notching outsized gains. and the megmegacaps seeing strength did nvidia justify the rally we've seen let's bring in deepwater asset management's gene munster, get some thoughts. gene, a lot of four-digit targets around today you got any problem with that? >> i'm good with that, carl. i think that we're going to see in excess of 1,000, probably a year, two years out here, but when i think about those price targets, i think it's important just to quickly step back and think about nvidia's business, before we get too carried away it's a boom and bust business. and the three quarters prior to this a.i. liftoff, the business was down on average 17% a quarter. that wasn't -- that wasn't that long ago the three-quarters since then, of course, it's up 200% on average, which really, the central question about those price targets comes down to, what is nvidia's underlying growth and i think the answer to that question is -- comes to, what do
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you think the outlook for a.i. is going to be and i started my comments on a sober point, related to this boom and bust, this scarring effect that their business has had on investors over the past five years, but my view forward is that those price targets are probably going to ultimately, $1,000 plus prove to be conservative, because a.i. is just that big of a deal. the one nugget from nvidia's call last night is 40% of the -- of the gpu usage, that means that a.i. is actually being used this is not hyper scalers building out infrastructure, crossing their fingers that something is going to come we're already seeing adoption, just a year into this, and we're at the very beginning. nvidia is going to benefit for a long time. >> where does that leave those, though, who are still on the lookout for hyper scale r digestion? suggesting an eventual inventory correction, maybe one day? >> so, what we saw with analyst estimates today on average, they
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went up by about 20%, so, actually, the valuation went down a little bit, but to answer that question, most of the commentary from the sell side and investors has been we're just pushing out this inevitable correction, this bust moment that, of course, unvid ya's going to have. it just can't be that good, and again -- so, to answer your question, most people have pushed the bust out to calendar '26. they think it's grog toing to gi '25 and '26 is the down year i think this is going to grow 15% or better. and it's hard to imagine that beier just at the start of everything that's going to be this paradigm shift. i don't think the bust is going to come in '26 i think this can last. they're going to have a bust, but i think it's probably three to five years from now the bust is going to be epic when it happ happens, but i think there's plenty of room of upside until we get there. >> hey, gene kudos to you, you've been all
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over this thing and steadfast on it but you said something that's really interesting as i talk to other folks who are tracking the gen-a.i. space very closely, we've gotten towards this inference phase, you just talked about how much nvidia is speaking to the usage right now, but doesn't that take much lower compute? if you think of the first phase as a lot of these players in the space are training these models, the more inference we get, isn't it likely to gdemand less comput and once we see better supply/demand dynamics, if there is a dropoff in demand, we might have that glut you're talking about, and then potentially that sort of bust >>the short answer is yes, it would cause that, if -- if you think these ways -- we're just going to have one wave, an i infrastructure wave, the hyper scaler waive, the a.i. startup wave that jensen talks about if this is the wave of a.i., we're a quarter of the way through it, but we're going to have that less need for the
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gpus, because, like you said, inference requires less compute. if you believe that there's going to be an application wave, which is going to need more building around this, and also more gpus for inference, and what jensen talks about, the industry wave, i don't fully get this one, but he says heavy industry is the largest opportunity. this is big industry using generative a.i., and the last, of course, is sovereign a.i., countries developing their own a.i. if you believe there are these four waves to it, then you're going to see this cycle continue where each wave starts to ramp, you're going to have a buildout on infrastructure, and then a dip down for inference, to your point, and then another buildup. so, that's why this comes down to, just a philosophical question that investors need to ask thelss how much do you believe in a.i.? i think a.i. is a 99 out of 100, electricity is 100 the internet is 50 mobile is 25 i think this is -- we are just going to get going that doesn't mean it's up and to
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the right for the next three years. there's going to be ups and downs in the market, but i think this is that big of a structural change >> in terms of metrics, there's a bit of a paradox here, gene, and congratulations, because you've been on this. earnings, look, the pe multiple at 31 times, it's more than reasonable, probably cheap without question the flip side of that coin is, current valuation is trading 19 times ish revenue. so, something's got to give. i understand it, because they have 77% margins, but one of two things is going to happen, i think. either margins are going to contract in a meaningful way, which is going to rachet down eps, or you're not going to see, i don't think, maybe the growth in terms of revenue. what am i looking at incorrectly or correctly or how long can this last, i guess? >> you are looking at it exactly like you should look at it, and the question comes down to the duration duration of growth and ultimately, that event is going to happen. there's going to be a dark day when it comes to nvidia investing. i think it's three, five years out there. but what you just described is
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exactly what's going to happen there's going to be a glut of inventory, it will get double hit. we'll go back to all this scar tisch shoe that investors have had. i know it sounds like i'm talking out of both sides, but i think we have a way to go. >> gene, appreciate it good seeing you. >> thank you >> gene munster talking nvidia to kick off the hour guy, can inan ves or the ride these cycles >> the answer is yes bonawyn's done it. other people on this desk over time have done it, as well i have not been one of those people, clearly, because this flies in the face of a lot of the things i grew up in and i still have the scars of '08-09 and gun shy, without question. the answer is yes. the anyone side of that coin is, when is this going to take place? right? that's the rub if you think this is two, three years out, then yeah, you ride the wave if you think these boom/bust cycles happen a lot faster, then you have to be extraordinarily careful at these levels. >> we haven't really talked about china risk or what that does to data center, at least in the last quarter is it a lingering risk
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>> listen, i think china is always a lingering risk, because it is very idiosyncratic and williams call. we don't know what the politics are going to be coming into november, so, there are a lot of moving parts there that makes it very hard to quantify, despite what china has been or not been for them you've seen the strength in the numbers. i acknowledge what everyone else is saying in terms of there likely be a boom/bust company. i think there is a bit of vertical in tegration that allow them to get to annual recurring revenue type of businesses think about apple and services you think about the data center services, how people need them to come in, service those centers, add, you know, silicon, kind of like customization around there, so, i do think there are multi-prongs to the business i understand, in terms of web three and that boom/bust cycle, i think that was much less tangible than this situation currently is they're actually monetizing on this, and now you're seeing with
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the transition into inference, while there will be more competition, there is a use case that is presently -- present, at the moment >> yeah, and it is and again, i think we have to kind of look out and see what's next and today -- this stock barely saw a downtick today it's truly extraordinary carl, you just said, the largest market cap gain of any stock ever in a single day that speaks to me to a mania now, i said that a week ago, i said it a month ago, but one thing that i've learned in my 25 years, i started in the business in 1997. i saw the internet bubble inflate and there was plenty of peaks and valleys in that whole period the s&p was skipping up, basically 30% a year for five years, until then thenasdaq crashed and lost 80% over two years and i'm not saying that we're on the cusp of anything like that but we've seen the s&p now, in the last, you know, 25 years get cut in half two times. guy mentioned the ptsd he has from the financial crisis. i have it from the dot com, because riding it up was really interesting.
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watching a very long, extended bear market for 2 1/2 years was actually devastating for an investor's psyche in a way so, all of that stuff speaks to me when i see what's going on right here and you can say it's different, because there's real profits and the way this company is growing and the secular shift that's going to happen and how it's going to transform the economy and the global economy but that's going to take time. and when gene says, in three to five years, i say, maybe three to five months, or maybe three to five quarters, it's not going to be there's going to be a bust before three years, when i think of this, so, i'm never going to get al mania like this on the upside, but i am never going to be riding it down the way a lot of retail investors do when they get the timing wrong on these trades >> you a "fast money" fan? you can lie and say yes. >> the answer is yes >> that's false. but on january 30th, we were in florida, and amd reported earnings, and i got totell you something, it was not a great quarter, and the guidance wasn't particularly good. the stock that day closed at 172, traded down to 165 or
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something. nothing has changed in that universe, other than the fact, you talk about the halo effect so, look at amd now, it's a fantastic company, without question but the last couple quarters haven't been particularly good yet that's getting dragged up, as well. so, when other stocks are getting the benefits of these, again, halo effects and the etfs and mutual funds, that's when you have to say, wait a second, valuation is going to matter >> that's a good point on that, our next guest says an increase in options activity following nvidia's earnings are just the beginning of changing investor interest. let's bring in mandy xu. good to have you comments circulating this week about call volatility in nvidia separating from the naz dasdaq x what is that about >> actually have the halo effect in terms of dragging all of the other stuff, as well
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so, average stock volatility this week actually went up, that was very unusual, because we're almost three earnings season, right? so typically, at this point in the earnings season, you'd expect volatility, stock volatility to decline. >> let me have them just fix your mike really quickly i wonder what you make of that and what it suggests about the market's reliance on nvidia? >> listen, i think there were a couple of things going on in the options market that kind of made it attractive to at least bet to the downside or protect your long positions, and we'll talk about that with a skew with mandy a little bit, without getting too technical, but again, i would say this, is that, in an environment where we've had a 13 vix, right, there's been so much concentration on a handful of names, you can say, well, defining my risk and prlaying with options is cheap in the 13 vix, it has not been in nvidia can you speak to that? guy and i were talking about this on the desk the otherni night, we were looking at the
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out of the money call versus the put, and the call was 2x the price. people will pay up for protection speak to that dynamic. >> oh, yeah, absolutely. so, the bid to the call side volatility, exactly to your point, skew, which measures demands for puts versus calls, actually became inverted in nvidia, which, for a high lyer it's not that unusual. we see it sometimes going into earnings, but certainly, inverted skew is a sign of just how bullish the sentiment had gotten in the name but again, taking a step back, it's not just nvidia we see that very flat skew, that extreme high demand for calls across a number of names right now. i think it speaks to the general bullish sentiment investors have >> does that extend to small caps are we getting bullish activity in the russell >> yes what's interesting to me, investors are so bullish tech in terms of what they're holding for the stock, but when they're using options to play is a potential broadening out of that rally, away from the megacap tech names towards the small caps so, we're seeing it in russell
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index options. a huge surge in upside call volume, skew in russell got inverted recently, which is even more unusual you have to go back 20-plus years to see the last time index skew became inverted >> is that interesting, at a time when we're no longer talking about rate cuts as much? >> it is, because of where we are in the cycle you talk about the inverse skew. we saw the similar situation with bank of america and citigroup, but that was after they had absolutely collapsed. you could actually argue that there was asymmetric risk to the upside here, i'm with you it feels a bit extended in terms of continuing to play it the other side of the coin, i think that bodes better for the retail investor. as opposed to piling into the stocks, they are defining their risk, and if they are going to take bets that might be a little bit long in the tooth, they are doing it in a defined way. >> mandy, to the extent that you want to answer this, what effect are these zero dated expiry options, on the dampenening --
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>> that's a great question, and a very common question that we're getting. when people look at the impact of zero-day options on the market, they focus on the gross volume, right? $500 billion a day trading these products of course they must have an impact but what really matters in terms of impact on the market, impact on the vix or volatility in general, it's the breakdown in that flow. if the flow is very evenly balanced, there's very little hedging that market makers have to do on the back of that option flow and what we see at cboe, all spx options what we see is a very balanced between buys versus sales, because investors, retail and institutional, are finding a diverse set of use cases for these options. so, it is not just speculating, fomo what we saw during the pandemic people are selling these for yields call spreads, put spreads. so, you get good two-way traffic in the flows >> mandy, we'll talk china next
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time good to see you. >> thank you >> mandy xu. talk about some ideas, bonawyn let's trade it >> well, listen, she mentioned there's a spread between, i believe, small caps and s&p as well as the single stocks versus s&p. i would be a better seller of options post-earnings. i don't think that situation can continue when you get moves like you get today, it kind of justifies it in the extreme short-term. what i think you do is, you probably move out a week or a month, and you give yourself a little bit more time for the decay. >> you mentioned the small caps, the iwm made an all-time high november 2021. if you look at over the last year and a half, two years, the 205 level, that's been resistance now since april, i think, of last year. for whatever reason, small caps are not validating this move in the broader market there are a number of reasons why. none of them matter necessarily, but the small caps, i think, are telling you something about the underlying economy here.
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>> not in a good way >> i don't believe so. >> what do you think >> no. think about the underperformance that we saw today. guy's highlighting this right now. and it speaks to the fact, the reliance on, you know, credit and cost to capital, the quality of their balance sheets. and again, the money that's flowing into the stories that are working right now, i just think it becomes that much more acute. this concentration, so, you're going to keep hearing these, you know, these, you know, these comparisons, the nifty 50, other periods. at some point, it's going to matter because it's always mattered you know what i'm saying it's not different this time it's just from a matter of where it happens and so, that's why i think, when an nvidia or microsoft or apple, these five names that are making up more and more of the s&p 500, and it's not just the weight within these indexes, it's the earnings contribution. what we learned about this earnings period, there's a whole sector that were underearnings. >> we have a reliance to their
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contribution to the earnings >> before we go, do you have any problem where they're overlaying nvidia with cisco. >> i don't because psychology is psychology so, you can say, you can be surgical about it. this company is so much more profitable -- but they have the same customer concentration, it's the same stuff. again and again and again. it's going to wind down differently, but it will wind down, i can assure you. coming up tonight afterhours, action in block, live nation, and carvana shares moving in opposite directions we're going to dive into the earnings reports next. plus, a golden buzz kill n newmont mining closing in on a fi fi five-year low today. more after this. you're watching "fast money" here on cnbc we'll be right back. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's,
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welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings alert. shares of block surging. company reports a surprise profit for the latest quarter. let's get to kate rooney for more >> hey, carl the stock is reacting to the higher profit forecast for block. it is focused on cost-cutting and getting lieean leaner has b
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paying off on the call just now, cfo says they expect gross profit growth of 15% they intend to exceed their initial guidance block raised its full-year profit guidance by more than $200 million revenue grew 24%, stronger than expected thanks in part, thanks to a surge in bitcoin revenue if youbitcoin, it wa up closer to 15% $132 million impairment charge around block's investment in title, that's jay-z's music streaming service, that square bought back in 2021. in a nod to title on the earnings call, there was a beyonce call playing in the waiting room you don't see that every day but the cfo told me that tidal and that write down, it reflects the latest thinking about the landscape in the broader streaming industry, which informs the current value of that asset, but she says, it doesn't change their long-term
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vision and strategy for that company. cash app was up 25%. square up 18%. carl, back to you. >> maybe jack dorsey chose some of the hold music there, kate. let's trade it guy, we have some -- we've had some upgrades of block lately. basically pricing leverage, maybe more involvement from dorsey >> correctly so. the margin improvement year over year is staggering, in a word. so, the question is, where does it go? it's up big in the afterhours. you look at a chart, valuation-wise, you can wrap your head around this one. it's not 20, 21, it's $270 stock, but it is a modern day one, which valuation is reasonable this has room to 85, and if that sort of floats your boat, i think there's room left in this stock, despite this run. it's had difficulties in that area a couple times. >> yeah, so, first year of gap profitability last year, this year, obviously, they are getting leverage on the cost cuttings so, the ability to guide up two
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quarters in a row is impressive. this is a company expected to grow low teens revenue group 35% gross margin business, not great, right it's going to trade, you know, if you look at the outyear next year, trading about, you know, 17 times or so, it's actually not getting the sort of multiple that we were expecting out of these sorts of company as few years ago. so, it is probably pretty reasonable >> what do you think >> listen, i still think at 22, 23 times, it is still reasonable the thing that stuck out to me, buy now, pay later, didn't have to make up room for cash app i think that's what surprised investors. another earnings alert for you tonight. live nation reporting a huge revenue beat, notching estimates by more than a billion dollars shares just turned positive in the last few moments julia boorstin watching that one. hey, julia >> yeah, live nation reporting a massive revenue beat, fueled by a more than billion dollar beat in concert revenues. shares did initially dip after hours. concerting s posting a bigger t
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expected profit loss the company did not report an earnings per share number. they are sharing a very strong outlook for next year, saying ticket sales in the first month and a half of this year are up 6% noting strong demand across all price points and saying that there is a growing show pipeline, with confirmed shows for large venues up double digits with growth led by arenas and amphitheaters. there was no specific guidance on the bottom line, but the ceo saying he, quote, expects profitability to compound by double digits over the next several years. now, as for the department of justice anti-trust inquiry into the company, the leadership said on the call just now, quote, we continue to answer any questions they have, they control the timing, and we'll watch it play out, but don't have any specific updates. we're going to have an exclusive interview with live nation's ceo, that's coming up tomorrow on cnbc in the 1:00 p.m. eastern hour back over to you, carl.
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>> julia, appreciate that. guy, is it a comment on the consumer's demand for experiences? >> no doubt. concerts up 44%. i haven't been to a concert since, i think, you know, i think jimmy page and robert plant, ike, circa '96-ish, but that's me. i'll say this, though, this level 97 has been resistance a bunch of times th stimes. you know what, this quarter might be enough to sort of get it through there you can stay long. this is a karen name, by the way. >> you like louive music more ta i do >> i thought they were going to take a gain on the pearl jam spring tour, i just got lit up on there the point about experiences, that is the story. these guys are in a good spot. there's a lot more "fast" to come tonight, here's what's coming up next. striking gold or striking out? n newmont hitting its lowest level in years
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we'll grab our picks and shovels to debate if the company can dig itself out of this hole, next. plus, how about a trip to japan? the country's flag ship index hitting an historic high today what's behind the major move, and where one top expert thinks the world's fourth-largest economy is headed next you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. why can't they use my backyard!! with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so we don't have to worry. empower. what's next. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade,
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welcome back to "fast money. got a buzz kill on newmont tonight. shares slipping more than 7.5% company post a beat on the top and bottom line, but cuts the dividend they are divesting eight noncore operations they aim to focus on so-called tier one assets. now falling to its lowest level since may of 2019. guy? >> remarkable. you think about this for a second the stock market's effectively at an all-time high. gold within $100 is within an all-time high ish, right here's a stock that is probably one-third of its all-time high made 13 years ago. what do you point your finger at you have to point your finger at management, not run particularly
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well and gold miners historically haven't been run particularly well however, if you think that gold's going to continue to go higher, which i do, and at some point, the underlying equities will catch up, these stocks, all of them collectively are just too cheap here, carl >> you're a fan of the commodity, as well >> the commodity, for sure i was nodding my head,because the irony that gold is at an all-time high and this company can't get it together. i think there's probably a buying opportunity here, as you are pointing out g is part of my trade here, so, i'm bullish the underlying commodity but i just think that -- i just think that there's -- it can't get cheaper. >> you all have acronyms of your own? >> what would yours be i'm not going to put you on the spot think about it but yes, we all do some of us played the game correctly. others not so much >> let so. still to come tonight, restaurants in rally mode, but house soon could we see obesity drugs start to weigh on that
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trade? how fast food could become fit food, after this. plus, we're going to party like it's 1989 japan's flagship index with an historic high today. we'll take a trip across the pacific to find out more about the country's resent resurgence, in a minute. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. rs, it's important to make sure our therapists know that with benefits from principal, they're taken care of too. (♪♪)
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welcome back to "fast money. stocks ripping higher today on the back of nvidia's blowout earnings the dow up nearly 500 points, turning in its best day since december s&p up more than 2% to a fresh all-time high. best day since last january. and the nasdaq ending the day up nearly 3% higher, just 16 points from a new record close. speaking of all-time highs, meta, via, hilton, berkshire joining nvidia at new records. and carvana soaring, missed on the top and bottom line, but upbeat guidance. an booking holdings announcing an $8.75 a share dividend. meantime, stocks in japan soaring to levels not seen since the late '80s. the nikkei closing in at an all-time high on tuesday,
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surpassing its last record set in december 1989 and while the index there is up nearly 45% in the last year, our next guest thinks investors should approach japan with some caution from here. david, it's great to have you. can you talk a bit about -- what's different today than it was in 1989? >> well, there are some major differences. in 1989, it was really -- by the way, this was the last trading day of the year, and japan was experiencing what we call a bubble economy and bubble markets. price to earnings ratio, 70 times. price to book ratio of the nikkei, five times it was just a very expensive liquidity-driven market, and -- but there were two -- one other similarity was the exchange rate today, the yen's at 150 to the dollar 1989, it was about 145 those things were all very
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similar. what other -- one other similarity, the return on equity of the average japanese stock in 1989 was about 7%, 8%. today -- just around 8.5%. but the big difference is the valuations the nikkei is at 20 times versus 70 it's a little over two times book versus what was five times book. but that stubborn return on equity the profitability of a japanese company remains the same the rest of the world is at 15% to 20% return on equity, japan still 7% or 8% so, the market has been devalued it took all this time, since 1989, to reach where it was trading, but we still haven't seen a change in profitability and this is the issue still with japanese equities. >> david, i'm glad you brought up the dollar yen. 150 down to 140, back to 150 over the last couple months. if you are long japanese
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equities, you want to remain long, what are you rooting for for the currency >> the foreign currency owners love a weak yen. recall, in 2011, spring of 2011, around the time of the earthquake/tsunami, the yen was at around 75, 76 so, it's a massive devaluation and in the last two, three years, we went from around 100 to 150 big devaluation. and this is one of the things that has propelled, especially the japanese export sector now, if japanese monetary authorities decide to formally abandon their weak weak money, and more monetary normalization, what you would see is a flip in the participation from the exporters to the
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domestic-oriented businesses, which will benefit from a stronger yen so, if they switch to more monetary normalization, which we've seen in the west, you would probably see a very positive impact on the domestic stocks, which have suffered during this yen devaluation sand you'd see a more negative impact you'd see a rotation, if they do adapt a more normalized monetary policy, which many think will happen >> david, bonawyn here, thank you for being with us. you focused on the divergence there. what do you think it will take to see followthrough on r.o.e., around the perceived focused on corporate governance and shareholder value? >> so, this has been improving, and it started with abe in 2012,
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2013, 2014, he had the three ls. one of the arrows was improved corporate governance and what this means is, better shareholder representation, smaller boards, japanese companies used to have massive amounts of cross shareholdings relationship holdings. and they hold each other's shares so, if something happened to one of them, you literally see a circling of the wagons and they'd get protected so, this was not necessarily conducive to building shareholder value. now, there's pressure. there's some pressure. pressure by the tokyo stock exchange, as an example. institutional shareholders putting on some pressure for these companies to increase their returns. what they have been doing better is a little better at capital allocation they've been selling some of these cross shareholdings and they've been using some of the proceeds to buy back shares, because japanese companies are categorically overcapitalized. they have too much cash on their
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balance sheet, and cash earning zero in japan. so, now they're starting -- we're starting to see more dividends, more stock buy-backs. this part is getting better, but remember, return on equity is a fraction the num erator is profits. the denominator is capital they need to work on that numerator. they need higher margins they need to be running their businesses in a more efficient manner so they can catch up with the rest of the world. it's happening, but it's slow, it's like watching a turtle. >> next time, maybe we'll talk about the tug of war between japan and china, and maybe some favorite names within the country. david, good to see you >> thank you for having me thank you. >> bonawyn, japan helps fit your acronym together >> two of the four here. digi some wanted digi
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the valuation is half of what it used to be, you don't have this corporate cross-selling or cross-buying means they're held accountable. why there's continued upside, we all talked about how lef stated this domestic market has been, we looked at europe, you want to look at another develop market, a lot of cash on balance, it does give you some margin of safety, even if it doesn't give you the debt-fueled growth that you might want to see. >> they still have some d demographic issues >> 100% -- to work out in terms of the demographic issues, the time for working them out is long gone. they have a lot of problems there. with that said, can you still own these names, like, the ewj, dan just showed me a chart probably still has a little bit of room here, i say a little bit, maybe up to 73. keep an eye on that, but keep an eye on the cross there, carl. coming up tonight, it wasn't just nvidia today. a big move out of moderna on the back of earnings a surprise out of that report had investors jumping in. and wing stop, cheesecake
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factory riding on their earnings beats. we'll do a dig into the new dining trends. and during february, we are celebrating black heritage this is cnbc's sharon epperson >> black-owned businesses grew almost 5% from 2019 to 2020, according to the most recent government data. that's lower than hispanic and asian american growth. experts say more is needed to accelerate these advances. celebrating black heritage, i'm sharon epperson.
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♪♪ welcome back to "fast money. moderna, big move higher today surging nearly 14% after posting a surprise quarterly profit, despite covid vaccine sales plunging also reiterating its full-year '24 sales guide of roughly $4 billion. shares down more than 35% in the last year. >> jamie talked about, year of execution, or something like that you know what? if he's right, this stock might be still worth a look, despite the move he had today.
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it's been very difficult to own. other names that have done extraordinarily well this not one of them however, if they start to execute like they said, this stock, i think, is really attractive at these levels >> any thoughts about the pipeline >> i think -- listen, the perception around the stock is that it was purely focused around covid vaccines. so, i think any diversify case from that single, you know, revenue stream, is positive for this stock it's hard for me, given the alternatives in the space, to deploy capital here, though. >> this morning, answering questions from joe about vaccine safety, for example. >> was he challenging him? >> yeah. >> yeah, they worked yeah i'm probably more of a pfizer guy here >> i think that's what i've got, too. when we come back, could buffalo wings and cheesecake be just what your portfolio sneem need how consumers are picking and choosing in the restaurant space. and then, a sneak peek at the cramer cam jim is chafting with the ceo
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swin wing stop hitting a record high today, now up 30%. cake also serving up some profits. shares up more than 3% today kate rogers has the dish on some of these hot stocks and the trends within the restaurant space. >> hey there, carl those two restaurants getting a nice pop after earnings yesterday. we'll start with wing stop as you mentioned, that stock closing up almost 8%, hitting an all-time high. the company reporting a very impressive same-store sales growth number, up 21.2% in its domestic stores in q-4, up more than 18% in the full year for 2023 it is doing so in part thanks to higher transaction volume, which is a rarity in the restaurant industry wing execs noting that consumers are looking for quality and value. it is prioritizing that moving ahead and seeing continued improvements, as it has been disciplined with its price increases. and over at cheesecake factory, also reporting better than expected same-store sales, up 2.5% that stock closing higher. analysts noting that the company has seen menu pricing moderate
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asinflation has begun to start coming down. cake's menu pricing went from 10.4% in q-1 to 7.3% in the most recent quarter it said this comes as cpi reports have noted grocery prices coming down much faster than restaurant menu prices, so, that means that consumers will be more particular about when and how they spend casual names tend to be pricier than fast food >> thank you, kate interesting, dan, to look at the cost of food at home versus food away the spread is at a multi-decade high >> it is and we know you watch the show most nights, i mean, we're talking about these glp-1s and the effects on restaurants, on budgets at grocery and the like. a couple of headlines that caught my eye, a survey found that ozempic effect gives sweet green a boost. nestle, which you would associate not with demand for these sorts of things, demand
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for nutritious products all parts of this trade are being effected, and it's hard to figure out how, but these restaurant stocks don't seem to be bothered too much by it >> yeah, i think i would stick around the fast or fast casual, around the tradedown narrative i hear the point about the glp-1s, you are going to see some flows there, but just from the overarching economic, you're talking about the spread, eating at home and eating out, and i think that probably isn't sustainable in terms of that spread kind of being able to hold out but i think mcdonald's or, you know, shake shack, something of that nature, wingstop, that still does give you, you know, a perceived quality, but at a price that seems to be affordable >> it's weird the way the comps are kind of separating between a burger king and a wendy's in the last few quarters. >> yes the have and have nots in the space are extraordinary. but i mean, again, i took the math a couple days in college, i can do this one. wing stop closed today at $333 it's going to earn $3 a share.
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unless it's wing stop a.i. and i missed something, i mean, it's trading at 111 times it's a great business without question their margins are veried goo, but you know, again, you try to trade on valuation and things like this happen, that's how you get your face ripped off but i'm telling you, some point, valuation matters and it's getting close in this name here, carl >> yeah. also, i mean, the results were not as strong from the likes of a jack, for example, jack in the box. >> mcdonald's -- >> downgrade of wendy's today. >> mcdonald's started off this whole earnings season with kind of downbeat results and guidance, so -- >> yeah. cost normalization >> and the consumer is strapped. think about that when's the last time you heard that about mcdonald's, saying the consumer is feeling the pinch. that could be concerning about the economy, as well >> there's a look at wendy's by the way, mark your calendars. melissa lee's documentary, "big shot" premiers a week from today, february 29th, right here on cnbc.
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coming up next, your final trades personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. i can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. you know when you have those moments? that time to reflect. to be like wow! what did i do to get here?
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- great people. different people, that's for sure, and all of them had different reasons for getting a reverse mortgage, but you know what, they all felt the same about two things: they all loved their home, and they all wanted to stay in that home. and they all wanted to stay in that home. - [announcer] if you're 62 or older and own your home, you could access your equity to improve your lifestyle. a reverse mortgage loan eliminates your monthly mortgage payments and puts tax-free cash in your pocket. call the number on your screen. - why don't you call aag... and find out what a reverse mortgage can mean for you? - [announcer] call right now to receive your free no-obligation info kit. call the number on your screen. personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. -you can make this work. -we can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence.
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no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. time for the final trade let's go around the horn bonawyn? >> i don't think the levitation is going to happen forever, so, i'm going with the tradedown mcdonald's >> dan >> you know, these rates, they've been going higher, you saw that, right? regional banks don't really like it seller of kre here >> guy >> there's a mount rush more of many things, there's an actual one. we know this >> there is. >> with the presidents, like, they chiseled. >> you are getting to the cnbc, the mount rushmore of cnbc hosts. >> carl is on that and the fact he spends his
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thursday evening with us is humbling thank you, c.q psx just continues to grind higher, my man >> good to see you guys. see you again sood than thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain but to educate, teach. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. nvidia's stock is not defying gravity with this magnificent 16% move today it's defying


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